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News and Events December 4, 2008 Outlook 2009 - A Good Year To Stay Away From Sharp Objects 2008 has no been an easy year thus far. It appears that 2009 will not be much better. While some progress has been made to correct the imbalances that exist in the national and local economies, there are still substantial problems in front of us. Credit markets remain in disarray and are not likely to turn around until housing prices stabilize. While this has happened in some markets around the country, many markets, including Greater Phoenix, could be a year or more from stability. This is true despite the fact that the excess supply of housing could be in the process of bottoming out. While credit and housing markets are a good part of the problem, they are not the only problem. With the decline in housing prices and relatively flat stock market values, consumers cannot rely on those assets to rovide them liquidity as they did prior to 2000 especially from 2002 through 2006. On top of that, consumer debt levels remain high and traditional savings is near a record low. The economy is bifurcated. Housing and auto sales appear to be in severe recessions, while other sectors, such as export related business, appear to be doing well. However, business has been doing well because of the decline in the dollar, which makes our goods less expensive overseas and foreign goods more expensive here. In addition, even though businesses are liquid and have strong balance sheets, they are having a difficult time securing capital as the credit crunch has spread into more than just the subprime segment. Thus, the one positive sector of the economy will not have as bright of an outlook over the next year or so. This will translate into further weakness in commercial construction. Overall, the national economic outlook is for a weak 2009. Growth will occur in the second half only because the comparisons will be so easy since 2008 was such a weak year itself. The slowdown, which could very easily be characterized as a recession, is likely to continue into 2009. Greater Phoenix has been affected by these factors more so in this cycle than in any other in the past forty years. The oversupply of housing may have peaked, but housing will bump along the bottom for some time and it will be a long time until things get back into normal balance. We need to be patient. November 3, 2008 ADRE Legislative Update Effective January 1, 2010, loan originators will begin a relationship with their employers much like that of a real estate agent to a real estate broker. Senate Bill (SB) 1028 mandates that prelicensure school, testing, licensing, fees, and regulations regarding duties and conduct will apply. Continuing education will be required annually when renewing a loan originator's license. Two additional bills affect lenders. SB 1029 changes the lender license renewal dates to allow Arizona licensees to participate in the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System (NMLS). NMLS allows states to coordinate with one another so a loan originator with complaints or violations in one state would not be able to simply move to a new state and have a clean record. House Bill (HB) 2587 prohibits a lender from lending unless steps are taken to verify the consumer's identity. If a person's identity is stolen and his or her identity is then used to commit crime or results in a judgment against the person, HB 2321 establishes a process where a person can obtain a court order stating he or she is innocent. This law goes into effect on January 1, 2009. For more detailed information on the above pieces of legislation, please go to ADRE's Web site. August 4, 2008 What is the purpose of the new federal housing bill? Last week, President Bush signed the new housing bill into effect. Here are a few of the major financing changes: A ban on down payment assistance from sellers:
A permanent increase in “conforming loan” limits:
A new home buyer credit:
July 8, 2008 The Reality of FHA The new reality is that FHA modernization, in addition to increased FHA loan limits, is designed to help Realtors & Mortgage Brokers do what they do best – put people into homes. Consider that: – 100% financing
options are becoming a thing of the past, and FHA is becoming a major player
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